WORK PROGRAM
MBTA SFY 2027 NATIONAL TRANSIT DATABASE:
DATA COLLECTION AND ANALYSIS
April 16, 2026
The Boston Region Metropolitan Planning Organization (MPO) votes to approve this work program.
Agency and Other Client Transportation Planning Studies and Technical Analyses
Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority (MBTA)
Client Supervisor: Joshua Weiland
Principal: Rose McCarron
Manager: Bradley Putnam
Future MBTA Contract
Schedule and budget details are shown in Exhibits 1 and 2, respectively.
The overhead rate used to calculate the budget is subject to change every July 1 based on the approved projected overhead rate for the state fiscal year (SFY).
This studyis supported in full with non-MPO funding. Committing MPO staff to this project will not impinge on the quality or timeliness of MPO-funded work.
For decades, the Central Transportation Planning Staff (CTPS) has supported the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority’s (MBTA) submittals to the National Transit Database (NTD). NTD is the Federal Transit Administration’s (FTA) national repository of transit statistics. At first, CTPS produced estimates of passenger-miles traveled and unlinked passenger trips for the MBTA’s bus and trackless trolley modes. 1 Over the years, the scope of these analyses expanded to include other modes: Heavy and light rail were added in SFY 1996, commuter rail in SFY 2000, purchased-service bus routes (routes for which the MBTA contracts with a private carrier to provide service) in SFY 2001, and shuttle buses in SFY 2021.
The MBTA uses its automatic passenger counter (APC) data, verified by on-board passenger counts (also called ridechecks), to estimate the unlinked passenger trips and passenger-miles traveled on its directly operated bus (MBDO) and rapid-bus (RBDO) modes. The MBTA has submitted APC data to NTD since FTA allowed the practice in SFY 2014. As directed by FTA in SFY 2016, CTPS began verifying these data with ridechecks on APC-equipped buses.
In SFY 2019, some of the purchased-transportation bus routes (MBPT) began to use APC-equipped vehicles. For these routes, the MBTA used APC data to estimate unlinked trips and passenger-miles traveled. As with MBDO, CTPS conducted ridechecks on APC-equipped MBPT buses to verify APC data. CTPS used full-route ridechecks to estimate total passenger-miles traveled and unlinked passenger trips for MBPT bus routes not equipped with APCs. CTPS will continue to collect these data in SFY 2027.
In SFY 2021, CTPS began collecting data to estimate unlinked passenger trips and passenger-miles traveled for shuttle buses (both MBDO and MBPT), which the MBTA provides when portions of rail service are temporarily suspended for maintenance. This data collection will continue in SFY 2027.
CTPS will conduct ridechecks for APC verification as needed on MBDO and RBDO, full-route ridechecks on MBPT routes without APCs, and noninteraction surveys and transit trip surveys on directly operated heavy rail (HRDO) and directly operated light rail (LRDO). The MBTA will provide APC data for buses, automated fare collection (AFC) data for HRDO and LRDO, and conductor counts and mTicket purchase data for commuter rail.
The objectives of this project are as follows:
CTPS will use the following methods to collect the data on which these estimates will be based:
If the MBTA’s data sources change, CTPS will consult with the MBTA about making corresponding changes to the methods listed above.
For MBDO and RBDO, CTPS will work with MBTA staff to develop a sampling plan for conducting ridechecks during SFY 2027. CTPS’s staffing availability and the MBTA’s needs will determine the extent of the data collection.3
For MBPT, CTPS will develop a sampling plan for conducting ridechecks to verify the accuracy of the APC data in consultation with MBTA staff. CTPS will also develop a sampling plan for conducting full-route ridechecks on the non-APC equipped routes. CTPS will perform the ridechecks over the course of a single quarter during SFY 2027. CTPS’s staffing availability will determine the selection of quarters.
For HRDO, LRDO, and RBDO, CTPS will develop a passenger survey sampling plan for conducting surveys at a random selection of stations over the course of an entire year. The sampling plan will ensure that the results represent all days of the week and all service periods. CTPS will also conduct noninteraction surveys at the stations that have faregates.
Because not all passengers interact with fare-collection equipment when boarding vehicles at Green Line surface stops, CTPS will conduct counts of passengers who do not interact with the farebox or fare readers. CTPS will develop a sampling plan that will ensure that these observations are conducted on Green Line surface stops over the entire year for all days of the week and all service periods.
For the commuter rail mode, CTPS may obtain and analyze four potential data sources: conductor audits, data from the MBTA’s mobile-ticketing vendor, Keolis Commuter Services’ passenger counts, and CTPS’s passenger counts collected as a part of a separate project. No direct data collection is planned for commuter rail.
For the ferry mode, CTPS may choose a small selection of trips on which to count boarding or alighting passengers. The MBTA will use CTPS’s counts to verify passenger count data received from the ferry operator.
For shuttle buses, CTPS will develop a sampling plan for counting passengers who board or alight buses that are providing substitute service for segments of rapid transit lines that have been temporarily suspended.
CTPS will complete the bus ridecheck assignments generated by the sampling plans created in Task 1. For HRDO and LRDO, CTPS will conduct passenger surveys at each of the survey locations. Staff will count passengers passing through faregates, including those who do not interact with the faregates, at survey locations in gated stations. Along Green Line surface routes, CTPS will conduct onboard counts of passengers, including those who do not interact with the farebox or fare readers. For shuttle buses, CTPS will count bus boardings at locations where the MBTA is substituting bus service for rapid transit service.
The MBTA will provide CTPS with detailed AFC data for HRDO and LRDO, and APC data for the purposes of verifying MBDO, RBDO, and APC-equipped MBPT bus unlinked passenger trips and average trip length.
CTPS will process the ridecheck, passenger survey, and passenger count data, including data on noninteraction with faregates and fareboxes. Completed assignments will be checked for accuracy and completeness, and incomplete assignments will be redone. The number and types of remaining assignments will be monitored throughout the fiscal year to ensure that all types of assignments are completed in a timely manner.
Processed ridecheck, passenger survey, and passenger count data
For MBDO and RBDO, CTPS will select some buses on which to conduct passenger counts for use in APC data verification. The MBTA will use these CTPS-produced results to verify the APC data it uses to estimate passenger-miles traveled and unlinked passenger trips.
CTPS will obtain AFC faregate passenger counts from the MBTA, which will provide information about the total number of passengers boarding at gated HRDO, LRDO, and RBDO stations. CTPS will then estimate the factors that account for the number of transfers between modes based on the origin-destination passenger surveys conducted in Task 2. In addition, CTPS will develop a faregate noninteraction factor from the observations at station survey locations and will apply the factor to the AFC faregate counts to estimate the total number of unlinked trips on HRDO and LRDO.
For Green Line surface stops, CTPS will use counts of boarding passengers who do not interact with the farebox or fare readers to develop a farebox noninteraction factor. CTPS will apply this factor to the AFC farebox counts of the total number of passengers at Green Line surface stops. CTPS will then apply additional factors to account for transfers between Green Line branches, to heavy rail lines, or to the Mattapan Line, which will generate estimates of the total of unlinked light rail and heavy rail riders attributable to light rail surface boardings. These transfer factors will be derived from the origin-destination passenger surveys.
For HRDO and LRDO, CTPS will convert the origin-destination data generated by the passenger surveys and the processed AFC data into estimates of the average passenger-miles traveled per mode. The average passenger-miles traveled per passenger will be multiplied by the total number of passengers to yield estimates of the total number of passenger-miles traveled for each mode.
For commuter rail, CTPS will use one or more of the sources of ridership counts described in Task 1 as the basis for estimating average trip length. In recent years, CTPS has used anonymized origin-destination data from the MBTA’s mobile-ticketing vendor. However, CTPS does not produce estimates of unlinked passenger trips or passenger-miles traveled for commuter rail, and CTPS does not expect to conduct any direct observations on commuter rail.
CTPS will also use commuter rail mobile ticketing data to estimate passenger-miles traveled on commuter rail in each of the urbanized areas the MBTA serves. Urbanized areas are defined by the US Census Bureau using data from the 2020 US Census.
For shuttle buses substituting for rapid transit, CTPS will obtain AFC faregate passenger counts from the MBTA for comparable periods with regular rail service and use counts of shuttle boardings and AFC faregate passenger counts during diversion service where applicable (when fare gates remain closed at terminal stations) to develop a shuttle scaling factor. CTPS will use AFC counts and the scaling factor to estimate annual and monthly unlinked passenger trips and passenger-miles traveled on shuttle buses substituting for rapid transit. For shuttle buses substituting for commuter rail, CTPS will take a similar approach while using conductor counts instead of AFC faregate passenger counts. CTPS will also estimate passenger-miles traveled on shuttle buses substituting for commuter rail in each of the urbanized areas the MBTA serves.
CTPS will provide the MBTA with estimated shuttle bus passenger flows between stops. The MBTA will use these data to estimate shuttle passenger-miles traveled in dedicated bus lanes.
For MBPT, CTPS will use ridecheck observations to produce annual and monthly estimates of passenger-miles traveled, average trip length per passenger, and unlinked trips. The MBTA will use APC data to produce estimates of passenger-miles traveled and unlinked trips on APC-equipped routes. CTPS will combine the results from APC-equipped routes and routes without APCs into a single set of values for MBPT.
For ferry, CTPS will assist the MBTA in estimating directional route-miles.
CTPS will document the results of Task 4 in four technical memoranda: one each for regularly scheduled MBPT, directly operated services, commuter rail, and shuttle buses. The memoranda will describe the data-collection and analysis processes and present a summary of the results. The MBTA has requested draft memoranda by October 1, 2027, and final versions by October 15, 2027.
Four technical memoranda and other underlying data as requested
The FTA requires that an independent auditor review and verify the MBTA’s estimates of passenger-miles traveled and unlinked trips. As the agency responsible for these estimates, CTPS will provide materials and assistance necessary for the audit.
Materials and assistance necessary to the independent auditor
|
Task |
Month | ||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 |
|
1.
Develop Sampling Plans
|
From Month 1.0, Week 1 to Month 2.75, Week 4.
|
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|
2.
Collect Data
|
From Month 1.0, Week 1 to Month 12.75, Week 4.
|
||||||||||||||||
|
3.
Process Ridecheck, Passenger Survey, and Passenger Count Data
|
From Month 1.0, Week 1 to Month 13.75, Week 4.
|
||||||||||||||||
|
4.
Estimate Passenger-Miles Traveled and Unlinked Trips
|
From Month 13.0, Week 1 to Month 14.75, Week 4.
|
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|
5.
Document Results
|
From Month 15.0, Week 1 to Month 16.75, Week 4.
Deliverable
A
Delivered by Month 16.75, Week 4.
|
||||||||||||||||
|
6.
Assist with the Compliance Audit
|
From Month 17.0, Week 1 to Month 18.75, Week 4.
|
|
Task |
Person-Weeks by Pay Grade |
Direct
Salary |
Overhead
(122.59%) |
Total
Cost |
||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| G-8 | G-7 | G-6 | G-1 | Total | ||||
|
1.
Develop Sampling Plans
|
0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | $1,658 | $2,032 | $3,690 |
|
2.
Collect Data
|
1.0 | 0.0 | 14.0 | 46.0 | 61.0 | $66,251 | $81,218 | $147,469 |
|
3.
Process Ridecheck, Passenger Survey, and Passenger Count Data
|
0.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 10.0 | $16,577 | $20,322 | $36,899 |
|
4.
Estimate Passenger-Miles Traveled and Unlinked Trips
|
1.0 | 0.0 | 7.0 | 0.0 | 8.0 | $13,462 | $16,503 | $29,964 |
|
5.
Document Results
|
1.0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | 0.0 | 4.0 | $7,565 | $9,274 | $16,840 |
|
6.
Assist with the Compliance Audit
|
0.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | 0.0 | 1.0 | $1,658 | $2,032 | $3,690 |
|
Total
|
3.0 | 1.0 | 35.0 | 46.0 | 85.0 | $107,171 | $131,381 | $238,552 |
1 In SFY 2022, the MBTA replaced its trackless trolleys with motor buses; SFY 2022 was the final year in which CTPS collected data on trackless trolleys.
2 The MBTA serves the following urbanized areas: Boston, MA–NH; Providence RI–MA; Worcester, MA–CT, Leominster-Fitchburg, MA; and New Bedford, MA.
3 Every three years the MBTA submits its APC recertification to FTA. The most recent recertification was in SFY 2025, and the next is anticipated in SFY 2028. In recertification years, CTPS collects data for 60 trips each on MBDO, RBDO, and MBPT.
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